This is Ukraine - Do not Panic.

[Slim]

So much footage on social media. Not that I think NATO should be involved but I think they would easily smash the Russians, all their artillery would be taken out via planes, drones etc. Much of the Russian equipment looks old and their airforce has not really shown any massive superiority. The stingers, nlaws,manpads and Javelins seem to be the weapons of choice.

I think you're right about NATO's technical advantage in conventional weaponry, but - an analyst interviewed the other night on 5 Live or possibly LBC gave a very bleak assessment of what would happen if NATO became involved directly.

Firstly, he supposed, the unity that's presently apparent among the Western nations would dissolve "within seconds" with people taking to the streets to protest. Secondly there's a strong chance that the Russians would use their "battlefield" nuclear munitions - not the ICBMs, but the nuclear-tipped artillery and bombs - against NATO military targets in the region. Apparently they have a lot of these, and he concluded that they would probably win the war, albeit at a huge cost to both sides.

I suppose that the prospect of the Russians being beaten with conventional weapons only makes a nuclear exchange more likely.

[David L]

2 points spring to mind in your analysis

- 30 years is a very short time in history. You need to take at least a good 100 years look at this region, in fact probably a 1000 years or more.

- you mention Russia, the US, NATO & EU and very little about the locals; Ukrainians, Poles, Lithuanians, Latvians, Estonians, Slovaks, Romanians, Jews, Germans and probably a few others. Do their thoughts and wishes not count?

Yes, to dismiss something like Holodomor, the Stalin-induced starvation of the early thirties would be wrong as it must have had a huge effect on the Ukrainians' attitude to the Soviet regime.
As to your second point, of course self-determination and the will of the people is crucial but I think it has to be acknowledged that their 'will' is often sponsored by outside, sometimes malign, powers.

[Rufus_the_dawg]

For NATO or the west to get involved is putting a stick in to a bees nest, apart for Russia nuclear capabilities they have nothing, NATO would splat the Russians in Ukraine, but where does that lead? Does NATO call Putin's bluff?

Obviously Putin's made a massive mistake, because he was thinking the Ukrainians were going to be partying in the streets when Putins tanks went rolling in.

He needs to be given a way out to save face, fast. I am hoping China will start to negotiate a peace. Why the UN has not put a peace keeping force together is beyond me. It could be non NATO. Biden needs to arrange a world wide peace conference. Crikey Trump looks really stupid now.

On a wider point of EU and NATO membership of Ukraine, it is up to the Ukrainians if they want to join them, Putin has lost the soft power war- because Russia is run like a fascist state and the oligarchs have all the money and it is not a properly functioning society. Just think if those billions were given to the people of Russia. Russia would turn in to a technological power house. Also the EU is such a massive success and countries want to join. With Putin invading Ukraine he's shown old eastern block countries why they want to and should join NATO. the Ukrainians did not want the Finland option, which is bowing down to a dictator they wanted to join the peace of the west and Liberal democracies.

The only person wanting this war is Putin and 1970s Soviet Union, 99.9999999% of people want peace.

Remember Stalin killed more people than Hitler. Both are Evil people. You have to look at history to see where we are but in the end we are where we are with Russia- fighting for its survival and its influence in the world and with the old eastern block countries. Ukraine is fighting for its independence and its place in a modern western society.

Russia can not let the Ukrainians win.

[Nick]

Interesting scenario.

Croatian officials criticized Nato today for what they described as a slow reaction to a military drone crashing into a field near a student dormitory in the Croatian capital, the Associated Press is reporting.

The Soviet-era Tu-141 "Strizh" reconnaissance drone apparently flew from the Ukrainian war zone through the airspace of three Nato member states – Romania, Hungary and Croatia – before coming down in the capital city of Zagreb, damaging about 40 parked cars. No one was hurt.

Both Russia and Ukraine have denied launching the drone, but military experts say Ukraine is the only known current operator of the Tu-141.

Nato, which exists in part to help protect and alert its member states from surprise occurrences such as this, said the alliance's integrated air and missile defense had tracked the drone's flight path. But Andrej Plenković, Croatian prime minister, said Nato reacted only after questions were posed by journalists.

"We cannot tolerate this situation, nor should it have ever happened," Plenković said while visiting the crash site.

"This was a pure and clear threat and both Nato and the EU should have reacted," he said. "We will work to raise the readiness not only of us but of others as well. "

[Rufus_the_dawg]

[dom]

Reading some analysis on Putin's request for help from the Chinese.

Its seen as desperate and unlikely to provide a positive response. Xi being so fixated on economic growth that he wouldn't want to risk any sanctions that would impact that. Also a weaker Russia (that would result from defeat or a messy outcome) would be an opportunity for China.

It is desperate as Putin realises this and yet still asked. Desperate as the war is not yet 3 weeks old and he is already seeking help. Desperate as seeking help is surely seen as a sign of weakness.

Uncomfortable for Putin too in that conversations with an ally have been made public so quickly.

[Nick]

The tank looks like becoming obsolete. Too many easy wins from the Javelin etc. The future is drones

[Rufus_the_dawg]

This is worth a watch

[Slim]

I heard a scathing assessment of the performance of the Russian military in Ukraine on 5 Live late this afternoon; under-trained and under-motivated was the conclusion and that's one reason that the Russians are apparently asking the Syrians to help. Will see if I can upload the conversation later.

Does Putin want a way out by now, I wonder? The economic situation in Russia is becoming dire, his military on the ground are under-performing, people are protesting at home and it must be obvious now that the Ukrainians would put up a fight even if their country were to be occupied.

If the tone of his speeches over the last couple of days is anything to go by, I don't think he does.

[Rufus_the_dawg]

omg

[Nick]

Crazy as the Russians flagged the location on a Newscast.

[Nickslikk2112]

Crazy as the Russians flagged the location on a Newscast.

Must be a Special Needs Military Operation...

[Slim]

When I heard about the landing craft getting hit on the news earlier, it made me wonder - if the Americans could target Russian assets with laser-guided munitions and make it look like the Ukrainians had done it, would they do that?

I don't think they've done that here though, the landing craft was a long way from NATO territory.

But there might well be "special advisers" working with the Ukrainians already on the ground, in Ukraine. It's greatly to the West's advantage to take out as much Russian hardware as possible, both militarily and politically.

[David L]

But there might well be "special advisers" working with the Ukrainians already on the ground, in Ukraine. It's greatly to the West's advantage to take out as much Russian hardware as possible, both militarily and politically.

I would think there have been western "special advisers" working with the Ukrainians since 2014..and possibly before that
(Hunter Biden was one that springs to mind  )

[David L]

"Fortifying, strengthening the spines quills of the Ukrainian porcupine to make it indigestible to Russia" 
He just can't help himself 

Another great quote today:

"the strategic, operational and tactical incompetence of the Russian military has been stunning"

General John R  Allen, NATO ISAF, 2011-2013 - ironically...... an American