Quote from: David L on January 11, 2024, 05:22:54 PM

Quote from: Matt2112 on January 11, 2024, 04:09:47 PMCase numbers suggest we're technically still in a pandemic (and might as well consider Covid endemic).  By "got through"/"got out" I take it to refer to the period of lockdown restrictions etc. So, generally,  what was the major factor in their gradual relaxation? Increasing vaccine coverage, perhaps..?

Increased naturally-acquired immunity and successively less pathogenic variants of the virus, perhaps? It seems to be the only things you can point to in many countries.

Fine, but which countries? Generally poorer ones with less vaccine provision - the results of which could be known and foreseen - and more dependence on natural outcomes - the results of which couldn't be?

QuoteAnd many countries had little or no restrictions to "get through"/"get out of" ('miraculously', without huge consequences in terms of high 'Covid deaths')
An interesting paradox, is it not?

Wouldn't that depend on their vaccine coverage?  Sweden is an oft-quoted example in these sort of discussions - a developed country with soft measures but a vaccine coverage similar to the U.K.

The problem here though of course is it's pretty much impossible to draw firm conclusions from different countries' comparable stats due to the various factors at play over and above case numbers/outcomes/strategies (population densities, demographics etc).

Quote from: Matt2112 on January 11, 2024, 07:11:27 PM

Quote from: David L on January 11, 2024, 05:22:54 PM

Quote from: Matt2112 on January 11, 2024, 04:09:47 PMCase numbers suggest we're technically still in a pandemic (and might as well consider Covid endemic).  By "got through"/"got out" I take it to refer to the period of lockdown restrictions etc. So, generally,  what was the major factor in their gradual relaxation? Increasing vaccine coverage, perhaps..?

Increased naturally-acquired immunity and successively less pathogenic variants of the virus, perhaps? It seems to be the only things you can point to in many countries.

Fine, but which countries? Generally poorer ones with less vaccine provision - the results of which could be known and foreseen - and more dependence on natural outcomes - the results of which couldn't be?

This data from reuters goes as far as July 2022. Take a look at the Democratic Republic of Congo (find on the list and click on country).In particular the graph for 'daily averages as percentage of peak'. The pattern is reasonably consistent with most countries, including the UK. Take a look at where the data ends and compare with the UK. In the UK 80% of the population had received at least one dose of vaccine. In DRoC, that figure was 3%. Now, if there was a massive surge in covid deaths in that country after July 2022, the MSM has chosen not to report it.
Of course, the good people of DRoC could have been consuming copious amounts of "horse de-wormer" 
Other countries with a low-vaccinated population look similar. That points towards a pattern that is/was not dependant on the performance/distribution of the vaccine 

https://www.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-maps/vaccination-rollout-and-access/

New Zealand is worth a mention. At that point in time (July 2022) 87% of its population was vaccinated, yet it was suffering deaths at 97% of peak. That doesn't suggest the vaccine was working too well to me 

Quote from: David L on January 11, 2024, 07:48:51 PM

Quote from: Matt2112 on January 11, 2024, 07:11:27 PM

Quote from: David L on January 11, 2024, 05:22:54 PM

Quote from: Matt2112 on January 11, 2024, 04:09:47 PMCase numbers suggest we're technically still in a pandemic (and might as well consider Covid endemic).  By "got through"/"got out" I take it to refer to the period of lockdown restrictions etc. So, generally,  what was the major factor in their gradual relaxation? Increasing vaccine coverage, perhaps..?

Increased naturally-acquired immunity and successively less pathogenic variants of the virus, perhaps? It seems to be the only things you can point to in many countries.

Fine, but which countries? Generally poorer ones with less vaccine provision - the results of which could be known and foreseen - and more dependence on natural outcomes - the results of which couldn't be?

This data from reuters goes as far as July 2022. Take a look at the Democratic Republic of Congo (find on the list and click on country).In particular the graph for 'daily averages as percentage of peak'. The pattern is reasonably consistent with most countries, including the UK. Take a look at where the data ends and compare with the UK. In the UK 80% of the population had received at least one dose of vaccine. In DRoC, that figure was 3%. Now, if there was a massive surge in covid deaths in that country after July 2022, the MSM has chosen not to report it.
Of course, the good people of DRoC could have been consuming copious amounts of "horse de-wormer" 
Other countries with a low-vaccinated population look similar. That points towards a pattern that is/was not dependant on the performance/distribution of the vaccine 

https://www.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-maps/vaccination-rollout-and-access/

New Zealand is worth a mention. At that point in time (July 2022) 87% of its population was vaccinated, yet it was suffering deaths at 97% of peak. That doesn't suggest the vaccine was working too well to me 

That reuters link cannot be accessed multiple times, I've found. No idea why but it becomes 'blocked'. This one looks pretty good though:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

and this one:

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

New Zealand is actually not a good example for me to mention as, looking more closely. even though the vaccination rates are similar to the UK, they are way down on deaths/million compared to the UK. I think, as you suggest, comparisons are virtually impossible (due to the variables you mention) but the point I was trying to make is the path that the pandemic has taken in some low-vaccinated populations is similar to that taken in some highly-vaccinated poulations. Why have those low-vaccinated populations not been decimated? Is the driver for these patterns largely, or partly dictated by natural behaviour of this particular coronavirus (waves of less contagious but highly pathogenic variants followed by highly contagious but less pathogenic variants)?
I struggle to understand how it can confidently be stated that the vaccine has saved XXXXX number of lives when absence of the vaccine has not led to far higher death figures (especially in those low-vax countries whose infection/death-rate patterns were virtually identical to high-vax countries before and after the vax was deployed)
Interesting stuff though. I'm sure the inquiry will provide all the answers but no time soon 

Well, whether you think the vaccines were necessary to extricate this or that country from the pandemic or not, there's no doubt that they did save very many lives so in that sense it's a moot point.

You'll recall surely that while the pandemic was still raging in the US, a massively disproportionate number of those dying in hospital were unvaccinated?

You're right to say that it's futile to compare NZ with the UK for example because of the various cultural / geographical variables, but you can compare vaccinated vs unvaccinated results in the same country where those geographical complications don't apply:

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths-by-vaccination



.. so this is how we can confidently state that, contrary to your assertion, absence of the vaccine led to far higher death figures.

Quote from: Slim on January 11, 2024, 11:14:41 PMWell, whether you think the vaccines were necessary to extricate this or that country from the pandemic or not, there's no doubt that they did save very many lives so in that sense it's a moot point.

You'll recall surely that while the pandemic was still raging in the US, a massively disproportionate number of those dying in hospital were unvaccinated?

You're right to say that it's futile to compare NZ with the UK for example because of the various cultural / geographical variables, but you can compare vaccinated vs unvaccinated results in the same country where those geographical complications don't apply:

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths-by-vaccination



.. so this is how we can confidently state that, contrary to your assertion, absence of the vaccine led to far higher death figures.

Can't take that too seriously when I look at the source

https://ashpublications.org/ashclinicalnews/news/4797/CDC-Pressed-to-Acknowledge-Industry-Funding

https://thefederalist.com/2022/02/22/the-centers-for-disease-controls-lies-have-destroyed-its-legitimacy/

Oh it's fake is it? Curious, because the data for England, and from a different source (the ONS) gives a very similar picture:



It's not the same time period, or the same population. Or the same source, yet it tells the same story: the death rate among unvaccinated folks was dramatically higher during the pandemic. At one point, nearly 10X higher.

What, in your opinion, is the reason that some countries did not require widespread vaccination (to reduce covid deaths) when they had shown a similar spike in covid deaths, pre-vaccine, to countries that subsequently required widespread vaccination to get to the same point?

I'm not qualified to offer an informed opinion on that. At a guess, they reached something approaching herd immunity the harder way (ie following a considerably higher death toll).

Quote from: Slim on January 12, 2024, 10:21:53 AMI'm not qualified to offer an informed opinion on that. At a guess, they reached something approaching herd immunity the harder way (ie following a considerably higher death toll).

That's a reasonable opinion. The only point of conjecture would be whether that higher death toll represented a lesser or greater cost in the long term.

Quote from: David L on January 12, 2024, 11:05:28 AM

Quote from: Slim on January 12, 2024, 10:21:53 AMI'm not qualified to offer an informed opinion on that. At a guess, they reached something approaching herd immunity the harder way (ie following a considerably higher death toll).

That's a reasonable opinion. The only point of conjecture would be whether that higher death toll represented a lesser or greater cost in the long term.

Than what?

Landmark study into the consequences of vaccine hesitancy - 7,000 hospitalisations and deaths could have been averted, the study finds.

https://www.strath.ac.uk/whystrathclyde/news/2024/firstall-ukstudyrevealsconsequencesofmissedcovid-19vaccines/

The findings reveal that the proportion of people who were under-vaccinated on 1 June 2022 ranged between one third and one half of the population – 45.7% for England, 49.8% for Northern Ireland, 34.2% for Scotland and 32.8% Wales.

Mathematical modelling indicated that 7,180 hospitalisations and deaths out of around 40,400 severe COVID-19 outcomes during four months in summer 2022 might have been averted, if the UK population was fully vaccinated.

Probably should have omitted the term 'modelling' 

https://www.businesstoday.in/visualstories/news/china-experimenting-with-lethal-virus-says-report-this-one-has-100-kill-rate-among-mice-92262-18-01-2024

Bit of a red flag there where the piece refers to the "Wuhan research that led to the COVID-19 pandemic" as though it's fact, but anyway - the Mail piece is here and a bit less alarmist.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-12969105/chinese-scientists-lab-coronavirus-kill-rate-mice.html

Another negative test today. Must be a rotten cold then. Haven't had one in years.